Peru's Tía María Copper Mine Project Approved, LME Copper Fluctuated and Closed Higher Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Thursday, October 23, 2025

Futures: LME copper opened at $10,670/mt overnight. It fluctuated downward at the beginning of the session, touching a low of $10,615/mt, then the center of copper prices moved upward, touching a high of $10,706.5/mt, before fluctuating considerably and finally closing at $10,658.5/mt, a gain of 0.59%. Trading volume reached 16,000 lots and open interest reached 317,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper 2512 contract opened at 85,280 yuan/mt overnight. It touched a low of 84,500 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, then the center of copper prices rose all the way, touching a high of 85,730 yuan/mt, before fluctuating downward and finally closing at 85,380 yuan/mt, a gain of 0.46%. Trading volume reached 47,000 lots and open interest reached 234,000 lots.

[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:

(1) On October 21, US-listed copper company Southern Copper Corporation obtained approval from the Peruvian government to develop the Tía María copper mine project in the Arequipa region, with a total investment of about $1.8 billion. The project, delayed multiple times since 2011 due to social protests and environmental protection reviews, has now officially received its mining permit. It is expected to commence production in 2027, with an annual output of about 120,000 mt of copper. This progress is seen as an important signal to boost investor confidence and revitalize Peru's mining investment environment.

Spot:

(1) Shanghai: On October 22, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2511 contract were at a discount of 10 yuan/mt to a premium of 70 yuan/mt, with the average price quoted at a premium of 30 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM #1 copper cathode price ranged from 84,840 to 85,070 yuan/mt. In the morning session, SHFE copper fluctuated rangebound, briefly testing a low of 84,780 yuan/mt before rebounding to around 85,000 yuan/mt. The price spread between futures contracts fluctuated between a discount of 40 yuan/mt and a discount of 10 yuan/mt. The import loss for the front-month SHFE copper contract narrowed to around 800 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to continue weakening, but the discount is limited. During the morning trading session, the price spread between contracts narrowed; arbitrageurs slightly reduced premiums for small profits. If copper prices stabilize tomorrow, premiums are expected to see little significant fluctuation.

(2) Guangdong: On October 22, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were at a premium of 30 yuan/mt to 90 yuan/mt, with the average premium at 60 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 30 yuan/mt to 10 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 20 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 84,920 yuan/mt, down 740 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of SX-EW copper was 84,840 yuan/mt, down 735 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, although copper prices fell, the decline was relatively small, leading to only a slight increase in downstream restocking desire. Spot trades were slightly better.

(3) Imported copper: On October 22, warrant prices were $30-$40/mt, QP November, with the average price down $1/mt from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $40-$60/mt, QP November, with the average price flat from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $4/mt to $16/mt, QP November, with the average price flat from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in late October.

(4) Secondary Copper: At 11:30 on October 22, the futures closing price was 85,010 yuan/mt, down 650 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium/discount was 30 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials decreased by 400 yuan/mt MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 76,900-77,100 yuan/mt, down 400 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,125 yuan/mt, down 245 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,460 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, after copper prices stabilized, secondary copper rod enterprises indicated that downstream purchase sentiment showed some recovery, but new orders remained limited.

(5) Inventory: On October 21, LME copper cathode inventory decreased by 300 mt to 136,850 mt. On October 22, SHFE warrant inventory decreased by 1,125 mt to 36,553 mt.

Price: On the macro front, the US government shutdown impasse persisted, with the Senate rejecting a temporary funding bill for the 12th time. Political uncertainty kept the US dollar under pressure, which was favorable for copper prices. Meanwhile, the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalated, with the EU approving new sanctions including a ban on Russian liquefied natural gas. The US eased restrictions on Ukraine's use of long-range missiles and sanctioned Russian oil companies. Geopolitical tensions heightened risk-off sentiment, further supporting copper prices. On the fundamentals side, supply remained loose, with both imported and domestic supplies continuing to arrive. Demand side, downstream purchase willingness remained sluggish, with high copper prices significantly suppressing demand, leading to overall weak consumption. In summary, macro support and weak fundamentals counterbalanced each other, and copper prices were expected to fluctuate rangebound today.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]